Demand

Seasonality Capacity Planner

Decide between flexing up temporary capacity for a peak season or building fixed capacity year-round, on total annual cost, not per-unit rate alone.

Strategy costs

Flex seasonal capacity$19,500/yr saved
Peak gap500 units
Flex strategy cost$10,500/yr
Fixed strategy cost$30,000/yr

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Based on your results, these related decisions are available.

How this works

Flex/temp capacity typically costs more per unit-month than permanent capacity, but is only paid for the months it actually runs. Fixed capacity costs less per unit-month but runs all 12 months whether needed or not. Comparing the two strategies correctly means multiplying each rate by its actual duration, not just comparing the per-unit rates.

Key terms

  • Peak gap: the shortfall between peak-month demand and base capacity that needs covering.
  • Flex capacity: temporary capacity added only during the peak months.

Assumptions

  • Uniform peak level for the stated number of months, base level the rest of the year
  • No mid-season ramp-up or ramp-down cost

Limitations

  • Does not model a multi-tier or gradually ramping seasonal curve

Sources

Standard capacity-strategy (make-or-flex) cost tradeoff framing.

Worked example

A 500-unit peak gap over a 3-month peak season costs $10,500 to flex at $7/unit-month, but $30,000 to cover with fixed capacity at $5/unit-month carried across all 12 months. Even though the fixed rate is lower per unit, the short 3-month duration makes flex the cheaper choice overall.

Common use cases

  • Deciding whether to hire seasonal temp staff or expand permanent headcount
  • Choosing between renting extra equipment for a season or buying it outright
  • Sizing a warehouse or line for peak versus flexing overflow capacity