Demand Scenario Comparator
Stress-test one capacity level against two demand scenarios at once, so a plan that covers the expected case doesn't hide a breach under the upside case.
Scenario A
Scenario B
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Based on your results, these related decisions are available.
How this works
Checking capacity against only one demand scenario, usually the expected or average case, hides breach risk that shows up under a less-likely but still plausible scenario. A capacity plan that covers the expected case can still fail under a reasonable upside case.
Key terms
- Binding scenario: whichever scenario produces the smaller (most negative) gap, the one capacity actually fails under first.
Assumptions
- Both scenarios are equally plausible, no probability weighting
Limitations
- Two named scenarios, not a continuous distribution or Monte Carlo sweep
Sources
Standard scenario-planning practice for capacity stress-testing.
Worked example
A 1,000-unit capacity plan looks safe against a 900-unit "expected" scenario A, a 100-unit surplus. But checking scenario B at 1,200 units reveals a 200-unit breach, a risk the single-scenario check completely misses.
Common use cases
- Stress-testing a capacity plan against an upside demand case, not just the forecast
- Comparing conservative and aggressive sales forecasts against committed capacity
- Flagging a plan that looks safe on paper but has no margin under a plausible upside